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2021120
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The euro gained on improved risk sentiment, as well as corporate and options demand after several billion euros in higher struck options expired

Market Focus U.S. stocks rose, led by gains in tech shares and small caps, with Wall Street parsing the latest earnings ahead of a flood of reports this week. The S&P 500 Index rebounded from Friday’s selloff after a three-day weekend that brought little through fresh macro news. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed back toward 1.1% and the dollar weakened. Crude …

Market Focus

U.S. stocks rose, led by gains in tech shares and small caps, with Wall Street parsing the latest earnings ahead of a flood of reports this week.

The S&P 500 Index rebounded from Friday’s selloff after a three-day weekend that brought little through fresh macro news. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed back toward 1.1% and the dollar weakened. Crude oil and emerging markets also advanced. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. turned lower even after reporting that profit more than doubled. Bank of America Corp. shares edged higher after its results. General Motors Co. rose to a record after Microsoft Corp. invested in its self-driving car startup. Netflix Inc. reports results after markets close.

Janet Yellen encountered early Republican resistance to President-elect Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan in her confirmation hearing to become Treasury secretary. Donald Trump is in the final hours of his term, with Biden to be sworn in at noon Wednesday in Washington.

Hong Kong Stocks at 20-Month High as Record China Cash Floods In. The market moves on Tuesday to show that investors are coming back to the reflation trade, betting that the incoming U.S. administration will use its legislative firepower to propel economic growth. Biden’s stimulus package includes measures like a minimum-wage hike and substantial expansion in family and medical leave — programs that have already triggered Republican opposition.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

The greenback held modest losses for a second session amid light turnover after U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen noted a preference toward a market-driven approach to American currency policy. The loonie gained ahead of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

The euro gained on improved risk sentiment, as well as corporate and options demand after several billion euros in higher struck options expired. The pound ticked higher after Bank of England Chief Economist Andrew Haldane said the bounce back from Covid may be sharper than the financial crisis. The Canadian dollar gained for the first time in three days.

USD/JPY is +0.2% after climbing as much as 0.4% to 104.09. The yen fell amid cross demand against the euro and Australian dollar, according to multiple Asia-based FX traders.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Sterling is edging above 1.36 as of market eagerly Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen’s testimony. The U.K. parliament is set to process the Brexit deal as Britain ramps up its vaccination campaign.

For the technical aspect, the MACD indicator is retreating from the negative mire and spiraling the momentum at 0 levels. RSI gives another strong signal, the indicator continues pick-up from neutral level to 55 as of writing, suggesting a positive phenomenon. As price action, sterling has been through a “v shape pattern” reverse from the last lowest level at 1.3618. For short-term, combing evidence that probably would give it an upward momentum. However, in the bigger picture, the consolidation range is still trapping sterling price momentum in nearly 2 months. Therefore, we expect 1.37 level remain a powerful resistance at top of consolidation, before that, barricade be an eye on 1.3678. In contrast, the first pivot of support is the shoulder of the “v shape pattern” at 1.3618 and 1.3541 is following behind.

Resistance: 1.3678, 1.37

Support: 1.3618, 1.354, 1.3448

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

The yen retreated consecutive from 104 and fell to 103.84, the lowest level since the Asian session. It is moving with a bearish bias, still positive for the day but off highs. A decline in U.S. yields and a correction in shares prices weakened the pair.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator remained above 50 then hold at 53 girds, suggesting a bullish trend further. On the other hand, the Moving Average indicator gives a divergently signal for further movement. Short-term indicator ongoing flat momentum, but long-term indicator holds ascending trend that death cross at the current stage. Therefore, we expect the yen would still lack price momentum as mixed guidance from indicators. So, according to price action, the first resistance would be 104 level, piling by price densely area, the next strong resistance would be 104.25. On the slid way, the first resistance would be 103.65, confirmative strong price densely area.

Resistance: 104, 104.25

Support: 103.65, 103.54

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold tepid around 1838 as markets looking forward to Biden inauguration and “American Rescue Plan” ahead. In other words, the market is lack of momentum trigger before releasing any practical contents of the rescue plan. On the other hand, 10 years Treasuries yield move slightly then close at 1.09% without any heralded sign.

From a technical perspective, short and long-term SMAVG indicators still tamp down, but the short one is getting flat at the moment which gives a sputter market guideline. On the RSI side, indicator beneath 50 thresholds then closes around 47, suggesting a bearish sign. Therefore, combing contrast suggestions from the aforementioned technical indicator, we expect gold would haggle at the current stage. On the slid way, the 1823 level be strong support from the longstanding picture.

Resistance: 1844.27, 1856, 1863.44

Support: 1823.4, 1815.08, 1804.15

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2021119
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China’s economy roared back to the pre-pandemic growth rates, with gross domestic product climbing 6.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier

Market Focus Markets were mildly risk-off on Monday as investors weighed strong economic data from China, US President-elect Joe Biden’s stimulus plans, and surging coronavirus trends. Carrefour SA tumbled 6.9% after Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. abandoned talks on a $20 billion merger. The dollar gave up earlier gains, while SP 500 futures were little changed. US financial markets were closed …

Market Focus

Markets were mildly risk-off on Monday as investors weighed strong economic data from China, US President-elect Joe Biden’s stimulus plans, and surging coronavirus trends.

Carrefour SA tumbled 6.9% after Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. abandoned talks on a $20 billion merger. The dollar gave up earlier gains, while SP 500 futures were little changed. US financial markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday.

In Asia, chips stocks and Huawei Technologies Co. suppliers dropped after Reuters reported that the US is planning to revoke their licenses to work with the Chinese company. In Seoul, Samsung Electronics Co. fell 3.4%.

According to Ben Emons, managing director of global macro strategy at Medley Global Advisors, “Markets needed a breather or even a pullback to justify reflationary expectations.” After a strong start to the year, global stock markets are losing steam as investor focus shifts to the upcoming earnings season and the difficult negotiations facing Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief plan. His proposals could be watered down under congressional opposition, and there’s the possibility that some taxes could rise.

One bright spot in the global economy remains in China. The country’s economy roared back to the pre-pandemic growth rates, with gross domestic product climbing 6.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. That leaves the world’s second-largest economy driving global growth and potentially passing US GDP sooner than previously expected.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

GBPUSD remains below 1.36, shrugging off the expansion of Britain’s vaccination campaign. Post-Brexit talks on financial services continue while tension is mounting ahead of US President-elect Biden’s inauguration. USDJPY’s correction is not done yet as the price chips away at the 10-EMA where is meets the 20-EMA in the vicinity of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the daily bearish impulse. The American dollar keeps appreciating against high-yielding rivals, backed by a prevalent cautious stance. A scarce macroeconomic calendar keeps AUDUSD confined to tight intraday ranges.

DXY extends the march north and already trades at shouting distance from the 91.00 barriers. On the other hand, prices of WTI are up smalls at the beginning of the week, managing to regain ground lost following earlier lows in the $51.70 per barrel price zone.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD (4 Hour Chart)

The Loonie climbed back substantially from the lows around 1.2625 and is now trading at weekly highs above the support level around 1.2758. A combination of fundamental factors helped support the Loonie pair to rise. One factor centers around the potential economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and imposition of fresh lockdown measures, which would dampen prospects for a recovery in the fuel demand and undermine the commodity-linked currency CAD. The other factor is the recent build-up of risk-off sentiment across the global investors. Essentially, concerns regarding the continuous surge in new COVID-19 cases dented investors’ sentiment and, in turn, boosted the safe-haven USD. These factors collectively contributed to the runaway rally for the Loonie amid the absence of market-moving economic releases from the US and Canada. From a technical perspective, the 15-Day SMAVG is crossing above the 60-Day SMAVG, suggesting that the golden cross is staged and the upward momentum of USDCAD may extend. Nevertheless, it would be prudent to wait until the price tops the most immediate resistance around 1.2795 before bulls capping their gains.

Resistance: 1.2795, 1.2816, 1.2833

Support: 1.2756, 1.2726, 1.2661

EURUSD (4 Hour Chart)

After topping at the multi-year highs near 1.2350 about a week ago, the EURUSD pair has fallen extensively and is now consolidating between a monthly low range between 1.2081 and 1.2055. The retreat of the Fiber pair is driven by the strengthening demand for the safe-haven greenback amid cautious markets and uncertainty revolves around the Eurozone, such as the political crisis in Italy and depressing coronavirus picture. Technically speaking, the EURUSD is still under selloff pressure as the 60-Day SMAVG fluctuates above 15-Day SMAVG. Additionally, with a 30ish RSI, it is inferable that the bears are still overwhelming the bulls at the moment. If the decline of EURUSD continues, the next strong support can be seen around 1.1992. Conversely, if a rebound is staged, the first resistance would be 1.2081, then 1.2116, followed by 1.2170.

Resistance: 1.2081, 1.2116, 1.2170

Support: 1.2055, 1.1992

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

While the Gold is still on the back foot, the yellow metal has successfully bounced back from the multi-month lows at $1804 and is now fluctuating slightly above its nearest resistance at $1838. XAUUSD traders should now be keeping an eye on the testimony of incoming US Treasury Secretary Janey Yellen and the inauguration of President Joe Biden on the upcoming Tuesday and Thursday respectively as those events would lay the key foundation for the markets’ demands of USD in a foreseeable future. From a technical perspective, the MACD is indicating a bullish momentum, at the same time, the RSI is also rising from the low 30s towards the 50 thresholds. Both phenomena suggest that the Gold has shrugged off the selloff pressure and has captured some positive traction at the time of writing. If the XAUUSD can post a strong, confirmative move above the $1838 resistance, the next resistance would be $1856 and $1863. On the flip side, if the Gold loses ground, then the most immediate support can be seen at $1823, $1814, and $1804.

Resistance: 1838, 1856, 1863

Support: 1823, 1814, 1804

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2021118
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Wells Fargo & Co. dragged down the banking sector in the wake of disappointing fourth-quarter results

Market Focus U.S. stocks fell by the most in more than a week after Wells Fargo & Co. dragged down the banking sector in the wake of disappointing fourth-quarter results. Crude oil declined from a 10-month high as the dollar strengthened. The energy and financial sectors led the S&P 500 into the red for a second day, with Exxon Mobil …

Market Focus

U.S. stocks fell by the most in more than a week after Wells Fargo & Co. dragged down the banking sector in the wake of disappointing fourth-quarter results. Crude oil declined from a 10-month high as the dollar strengthened.

The energy and financial sectors led the S&P 500 into the red for a second day, with Exxon Mobil Corp. dropping 4.8% after a report said the company is being investigated for overvaluing assets. Utilities and real estate shares rose. Stocks were already lower in Europe and Asia as President-elect Joe Biden’s much-anticipated $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan came under scrutiny. Optimism about the U.S. aid package had helped spur the so-called reflation trade, but the plan is far from a done deal. Biden’s proposal could be watered down under congressional opposition, and there’s the possibility that some taxes could rise.

Biden’s “American Rescue Plan” includes a wave of new spending, more direct payments to households, expansion of jobless benefits, and enlargement of vaccinations and virus-testing programs as deaths record levels and local governments expand lockdowns.

Attention is now turning to how much of the package will ultimately get passed by Congress, with the go-big price tag and the inclusion of proposals set to be opposed by many Republicans. As lawmakers wrangle over details, U.S. jobless claims published Thursday painted a dismal picture and the U.S. is leading all countries in virus deaths with New York state reporting more than 200 daily fatalities for the first time since May.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

The dollar is poised for the first weekly back-to-back rise since September amid mid-month position adjustments before a long weekend in the U.S. as risk appetite waned ahead of central bank meetings starting next week.

Investors are concerned that the Biden administration’s stimulus plan may struggle to win broad-based support and soft bank earnings. Haven asset demand rose following weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales and reports the EU was notified Pfizer won’t be able to deliver scheduled vaccine volumes in full during the next 3-4 weeks. Treasury 10-year yields declined 3.7bps to 1.09%.

USD/JPY up marginally at 103.86 with pair whipsawed by cross-related selling and broad dollar buying; holds to narrow trading range of 103.62 to 103.90 as implied ease; finishes the week down less than 0.1%; EUR/JPY sinks as much as 0.6% to its lowest level in a month and a half.

USD/CAD rises 0.7% to 1.2733 after climbing as much as 1% amid a drop in WTI oil prices; pair finishes up 0.3% on the week; 1-week implied rose to 7.25% ahead of a Bank of Canada meeting next week.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Sterling turns negative beneath 1.36 level from high at 1.37 amid dollar spur by risk sentiment, erasing a weekly gain. In the meantime, the pair has also received tailwinds from a repricing of money market expectation for BoE negative interest rate policy (NIRP) in 2021 and beyond. For eco data, U.K. GDP(MoM) shrank 2.6% worse than last time after London lockdown second time. On the other hand, weaker-than-expectation Manufacturing Production record 0.7%.

From a technical perspective, short-term moving average indicator kick-start turns south side and long term moving average indicator slightly turn into downward. For the RSI aspect, the indicator slid beneath 50 slightly, set 43 as of writing, which suggests a nascent bearish phenomenon. Due to the aforementioned suggestion, we expect sterling will consolidate in the range between first pivot support and resistance at 1.3618 and 1.354.

Resistance: 1.3618, 1.3678, 1.37

Support: 1.354, 1.3448

EURUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Eurodollars extend downside momentum to nearly one month low at 1.2078 as of writing, amid the dollar posting one of its biggest increase since the early days of the pandemic. ECB warning the full effect of the pandemic crisis on euro-area banks has yet to be felt as policy support so far has masked losses, several ECB officials noted. “Euro-area banks are likely to face significant losses and further pressure on their already weak profitability prospect and must be extremely prudent on issuing dividends and ensure their capital can absorb their losses”, the Irish governor said.

For the price action aspect, it’s clear that the euro has tamped down a month-long “double top pattern” after breakthrough right shoulder at 1.2138. For Moving Average aspect, short term indicator consecutive downward slope, long term one as well. For the RSI perspective, the indicator showed 32 figures and close to the over sought zone, suggesting a bearish side.

We could not preclude that eurodollar extended losses scenario combing all suggestions above. However, we still expect 1.2078 would be critical support for price pattern, If not, the following second pivot support at 1.1995.

Resistance: 1.2138, 1.2211, 1.2251

Support: 1.2078, 1.1195

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

After moved in a tiny gain yesterday, gold had difficultly extended retracement momentum amid lack of event and the greenback soared up intraday. Gold continuously slid intraday to 1827.95 which is a critical support level, as of writing.

From a technical perspective, gold is still on the way to a bearish trend as 15-SMAVG consecutive upwind after it had a slightly flat position. Meanwhile, the 60-SMAVG indicator remained its descend trend momentum as bias is getting wide. On the other hand, the RSI indicator is moving sideways below 50, set 37 girds, suggesting bearish further for the short term a least.

We expect that 1817.77 would become powerful support which is Jan 11 low and shoulder of W shape reverse pattern. Therefore, we believe the tamp down market will get a limit while it approaches first pivot support. However, if any fundamental driver drag market down again, the last lowest point in 1767 would foreseeable ahead.

Resistance: 1856, 1863, 1879

Support: 1827, 1815

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2021115
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said policymakers won’t raise interest rates unless they see troubling signs of inflation

Market Focus US stocks fell for the first time in three days and Treasury yields climbed amid expectations of President-elect Joe Biden planning another round of Covid-19 relief of as much as $2 trillion. After approaching all-time highs most of Thursday, the S&P500 turned negative late in the trading session. Technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors were the biggest …

Market Focus

US stocks fell for the first time in three days and Treasury yields climbed amid expectations of President-elect Joe Biden planning another round of Covid-19 relief of as much as $2 trillion. After approaching all-time highs most of Thursday, the S&P500 turned negative late in the trading session. Technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors were the biggest losers, while energy shares rose with oil. Biden is expected to announce his economic support plans later in the day. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said policymakers won’t raise interest rates unless they see troubling signs of inflation. On top of that, the Fed Chair Powell held a brief Q&A event at Princeton University and spent most of his time in the discussion to address the Fed’s decision made during a pandemic.

The five key takeaways from Powell’s remarks at Princeton Finance Event:

  • The Fed chair said that, about the central bank’s bond-buying program, “now is not the time to be talking about the exit.” He added that “the economy is far from our goals,” and that “when it does become appropriate for the committee to discuss specific dates” for tapering of purchases, it would be done “well in advance”. 
  • Powell downplayed the inflation that forecasters expect to see in the US this year. When asked about it, he focused his answer on the job market instead and the amount of damage that will need to be repaired on that front, reinforcing the dovish tilt to the Fed’s current policy stance. 
  • Powell brushed off various concerns the moderator raised about corporate and public leverage, suggesting those wouldn’t affect the Fed’s interest-rate decisions.
  • The Fed chair also gave a post-mortem of sorts on the central bank’s emergency lending facilities that were launched in the early days of the pandemic and shuttered at the end of 2020. He had high praise for the corporate and municipal bond market backstops, whereas the Main Street Lending Program he admitted had some important conceptual flaws. 
  • Powell also discussed how the Fed can contribute to the fight against inequality, an insight that emerged from the policy framework review the Fed conducted throughout 2019 and much of 2020. Expect to hear more from Fed officials on that in the coming years as it plays into their assessments about how close the economy is to their goal of maximum employment. 

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

EURUSD is currently trading at 1.1257 having traveled between a range of 1.2111 and 1.2179 on the day so far, catching a bid on Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s remarks. GBPUSD extended its rally in the second half of the day and touched its highest level since May 2018 at 1.3709. The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the greenback continues to fuel the pair’s upside. After dropping below 0.7750 in the early American session, the Aussie turned north supported by the broad selling pressure surrounding the greenback.

The US dollar index flirts with tops near 90.65, then retreated down to the 90.240 regions past Powell’s comments. WTI crude oil currently trades flat during what has thus far been choppy directionless trade. Front-month WTI futures currently trade just beneath the $53.00 level as the market await key Biden speeches.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

USDJPY erases most of its gains from the two-consecutive-day win streak of the pair at the time of writing. Despite the bulls’ efforts to push USDJPY to its weekly high near 104.20 in the earlier session, the dollar still slides substantially after the markets processed the highly anticipated Fed Chair Powell’s comments at Princeton Finance Event. The major dragging force that weighs on the greenback was Powell’s comment on the forecasted inflation across the U.S. economy. According to Powell, the central bank won’t hike until it sees troubling inflation or imbalances. Additionally, he mentioned that he could see upward pressure on prices near-term, but the bank has tools to quell unwelcome price gains. Finally, he focused on the job market, rather than on the amount of damage that would need to be repaired to reinforce the dovish stance the Fed is currently upholding.

Powell’s comments greatly impacted the fluctuations of most USD rivals, one, in particular, is the USDJPY as the pair turned south at 104.13 and bottomed near 103.55. From a technical perspective, the comments of Powell has inevitably turned the RSI neutral, but the support at 103.65 has offered some crucial cushion for the bulls to catch a breath. The 21-Day SMAVG is still signaling a bullish trend for the pair; however, the bulls must first find acceptance above the 104 resistance level to resume their bullish momentum.

Resistance: 104.00, 104.25

Support: 103.65, 103.55, 103.42

USDCAD (4 Hour Chart)

Backed by the strong performance of the Oil, the CAD continues to exert its dominance over the USD on Thursday with the Loonie pair currently trading around the weekly low near 1.2630. Not to mention the fact that the comments made by the Fed Chair also contributed to the breakthrough of the Loonie below the numerously tested support at 1.2670. Technically speaking, the break below the crucial support 1.2670, which has turned into the most immediate resistance for USDCAD, officially marked a death cross on the SMAVG, indicating that the Loonie is about to head further south. If the Loonie breaks below the support at 1.2630, the next cushion would be seen at 1.2546, a price that was last seen in 2018 Apr. Given that the RSI is now bouncing around 37, it is inferable that while an upward correction may be around the corner, there is still room for USDCAD to dip before staging a positive correction.

Resistance: 1.2670, 1.2705, 1.2745, 1.2840

Support: 1.2630, 1.2546

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

The gold traders experience a roller-coaster type of day as the XAUUSD first dove drastically from the high of $1852 to $1829, then rose extensively post Powell’s comments to the daily high above $1857, and the yellow metal has now retreated down to $1846. The next most heavily anticipated event is US President-elect Joe Biden’s reveal of the next fiscal stimulus plans (this should take place at 00:15 GMT). Currently, one possible plan is a larger than $2.0 trillion bill that is likely to include a significant child benefit spending but might not be supported by Biden’s Republican counterparts in Senate. Now, given that Biden would need 60 votes in the Senate to pass the bill, as a result, the markets are heavily eyeing an alternative bill.

From a technical perspective, the XAUUSD is still on a bearish trend as indicated by the strong 60-Day SMAVG and the RSI. Additionally, as the MACD line is now staging a cross below its signal line, the bearish momentum is further confirmed. If XAUUSD drops below the most immediate support near $1839, the next support would be $1827, then $1815. Conversely, if the weakened greenback persists and pushes the XAUUSD up, the first resistance the bulls would have to break would be found at $1856, followed by $1863 and $1879.

Resistance: 1856, 1863, 1879

Support: 1839, 1827, 1815

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