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U.S. state unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose for a second week, underscoring the…

U.S. state unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose for a second week, underscoring the choppy nature of the labor-market recovery

Market Focus Stocks climbed as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank has the tools to curb any inflation pressures, which are expected to be temporary …

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Market Focus

Stocks climbed as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank has the tools to curb any inflation pressures, which are expected to be temporary as the economy reopens.

The S&P 500 notched a fresh record amid slow trading. Volume on U.S. exchanges remained under 10 billion shares, hitting another low for the year. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed major equity benchmarks as giants such as Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. rallied. Energy producers and banks retreated. Treasuries rose, while the dollar fell.

One day after the Fed’s March minutes struck a dovish tone for the path of monetary policy, Powell said the central bank would react if inflation expectations started “moving persistently and materially” above levels officials are comfortable with. He also noted that disparate efforts to vaccinate people globally are a risk to progress for the economic rebound, which remains “uneven and incomplete.”

Meanwhile, Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said it’s too soon for central bankers to discuss tapering asset purchases as long as the pandemic continues. Data Thursday showed applications for U.S. state unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose for a second week, underscoring the choppy nature of the labor-market recovery.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

The dollar retreated with U.S. Treasury yields as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that inflation is not expected to surge out of control and the central bank would take steps to curb it, if necessary. The yen touched the highest level in two weeks on the back of falling yields.

Among G-10 currency peers, the Swedish krona and franc topped counterparts, while the Norwegian krone lagged all. USDJPY -0.6% to 109.25; fell as much as 0.8%, the most since November; yen earlier hit a session high of 109.90. USDJPY volatilities are lower across tenors. AUDUSD +0.5% to 0.7649; climbed as much as 0.6% to 0.7660.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (Four-Hour Chart)

The eurodollar once hit a nearly two-week peak at 1.1925 then tweak down slightly, trading at 1.1913 as of writing. From a Moving Average perspective, the euro creep up alongside the 15-long SMAs since the golden cross days ago whilst the 60-long SMAs indicator picks up accelerated. For the RSI side, the indicator approach to 72.8 figures suggests a bought sentiment at the current stage.

we expect that recently soared up has enacted a short squeeze which wipes out the short position momentum. Therefore, we believe the market will toward to neutral or consolidation movement in short term. On the up way, we see first resistance at 1.194 if market move consolidation. Subsequently, pivotal resistance will at 1.199 if the market beef up further which is entrenched by shoulder level of head pattern in early this year.

Resistance: 1.1941, 1.19

Support: 1.1877, 1.1796, 1.1705

GBPUSD (Four-Hour Chart)

At the time of writing, sterling is trading at 1.3734 after it weathered a whipsaw movement intraday. In the meantime, the greenback traded near its lowest in two weeks versus major peers which accord with 10 year Treasuries yields tamp down. On the RSI side, the indicator shows 37 figures which suggest a bearish outlook at least for a short run. Other than this, we see 15-long SMAs have death cross 60-long SMAs.

Therefore, we expect the market will extend its bearish momentum as integrate the suggestion from indicators. On the slid side, the first support will be 1.3718 as in the spade price cluster in that level, 1.3678 following as last lowest point.

Resistance: 1.377, 1.3848

Support: 1.3718, 1.3678

XAUUSD (Four-hour Chart)

Gold has handed over the fist to breakthrough a tiny range consolidation to the higher stage against yesterday’s slight movement, trading at 1756.77 level which breached one month high. On the RSI side, the indicator has reached 73 figures as of writing, suggesting an over-bought sentiment. On the other hand, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicators are both retaining the ascending trend after the golden cross days ago.

Currently, we expect the gold market will high probability cool off the edge up movement in the short term as it relatively has too strong momentum. However, from a long-term perspective, it still has prosperity on the long side as it stands above the resistance of the “W shape” pattern. On the slid side, the critical support level at 1754 around the need to be defended stands for a shoulder level of “W shape” pattern.

Resistance: 1759.7

Support: 1754.5, 1737.7, 1678.85

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen unveiled a detailed pitch for Joe Biden’s new…

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen unveiled a detailed pitch for Joe Biden’s new corporate tax code

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Market Focus

Stocks markets were a little green after the Fed Reserve refrained from signaling any changes to its bond-buying program, causing the dollar index to advance. All told, the Dow Jones Industrial Averages climbed about 0.05%; the S&P 500 rose 0.15% while the Nasdaq crawled 0.28%. The credit markets are pondering over whether if yields are going up because the economy is reopening and massive real growth is expected or if yields are going up because of inflation. If it is the former one, the stock markets will not be bothered; however, if it is the latter one, there will be a problem for the economy, according to Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research.

Key takeaways from the FOMC:

  • The Fed Reserve is taking a glass- half-empty view of the economic recovery. The Fed is in no rush mode to remove accommodation, implying that the Fed will start to taper asset purchases. 
  • The Fed sees inflation risk as balanced.
  • Discussion on the potential need to adjust administered rates to help keep the fed funds rate well within the target range.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen unveiled a detailed pitch for Joe Biden’s new corporate tax code, planning to recoup $2 trillion in overseas profits. Yellen stated that a new tax code would be fairer to all Americans, removing incentives for companies to shift investments and profits abroad, and at the same time raising more money for critical needs at home. All told, the extra tax takes of about $2.5 trillion over 15 years would pay for Joe Biden’s eight-year infrastructure, green investments, and social program spending.

Asian stocks markets were mixed as Thailand and Hong Kong led declines while most other equity benchmarks advanced. Thailand’s SET index plunged the most amid a domestic surge in coronavirus infections. Restaurant and hotel shares led the decline as the Prime Minister mentioned that a tougher restriction would be imposed to fight the virus.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

GBPUSD has slipped below 1.38, extending further south as US yields resume their gains. The pair fell more than 0.6% amid doubts about Boris Johnson’s plan to reopen the country. Moreover, despite having upbeat data, GBPUSD seems to depend heavily on movements in US bond yields, resulting in a negative move in the pair today. On the other hand, optimism from the Fed Reserve poses a risk to GBPUSD’s gains.

Gold declines after the FOMC provided no tailwinds for the metal. The Fed Reserve saw it taking some time before conditions would be met for scaling back massive monthly asset purchases. At the same time, investors continued fleeing from the gold-backed exchange-traded fund, showing a bearish sign. Gold has been under downside pressure this year amid the increasing optimism over the post-pandemic economic recovery worldwide.

The US dollar index got lifted as the Fed Reserve has shown no rush to taper assets purchases; the Fed remained optimistic on the economic impact from fiscal stimulus and vaccinations. With these, the US 10-year yield rose about 1.4%, strengthening the US dollar index.

USDCAD climbed around 0.4% as the US dollar put options worth $750 million against the Canadian dollar at a 1.26 strike price, which will expire on the 9th of April.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

The British Pound trades near-daily low around 1.3737 against the US dollar at the time of writing. The bearish trend is mostly confirmed as GBPUSD has extended its slump below its simple moving averages. Moreover, the support level at 1.3749 has been broken, giving the pair more room to accelerate the bearish momentum. Furthermore, the technical indicators, the MACD maintains its downward strength, lending support to bears, whilst the RSI has not yet fully reached the oversold readings. As of now, the next target for GBPUSD is expected to be heading toward 1.3670, the next immediate support.

Resistance: 1.3749, 1.3798, 1.3838

Support: 1.3670

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

USDJPY continues to trade in the price range of 109.70- 110.97. The pair is in the stage of determining which side to go as it is currently testing the critical support level at 109.70, where the 20 SMA and the ascending trend cross. On the upside, if USDJPY fails to break through the support level, then it will bounce back to the bullish channel, suggesting a continuous positive move. To the downside, if USDJPY successfully breaks through the support, it is expected to accelerate the downside pressure toward the next support at 108.99; moreover, a near overbought RSI also lends support to bears. That being said, the pair needs to break below 109.70 to confirm another leg south.

Resistance: 110.97

Support: 109.70, 108.99, 107.77, 106.78

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold trades in a relatively tight range today on the day of FOMC, trading at $1740 at the time of writing. Gold once again clings on the immediate resistance at $1746.91. In the near term, bullish momentum is expected to happen, helping gold break through the resistance level as it is the 7th time that gold retests the level. To the upside, the MACD indicator currently lends support to bulls whilst the RSI is still outside of the overbought region, giving gold room to trade higher. Above $1746.91 and further above the 50 SMA, gold will see a near-term base established for a deeper recovery to $1790.23, a fresh cap.

Resistance: 1746.91, 1790.23, 1825.24

Support: 1676.89

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The data showed U.S. job openings rose to a two-year high in…

The data showed U.S. job openings rose to a two-year high in February

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Market Focus

Stocks dropped in the slowest trading day of 2021 after a rally that drove the equity market to all-time highs. Treasuries climbed.

Volume on U.S. exchanges slipped below 10 billion shares for the first time this year. Tech companies led losses in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, offsetting gains in retailers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq 100 also retreated. Stocks tied to the Archegos Capital Management blowup ended the session higher as investors brushed news that Credit Suisse Group AG unloaded more than $2 billion of the shares in the latest block trades stemming from the liquidation of Bill Hwang’s fund.

Trading has slowed in recent days as investors grappling with wild rotations awaited the start of the earnings season. Traders bought stocks in record amounts in the first quarter of 2021 as a combination of generous stimulus and bets on an economic recovery that drove $372 billion into global equity funds, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. The data confirm the bullish market sentiment that has pushed shares to fresh highs, with optimism over-vaccination efforts outweighing concern that higher bond yields can interfere with the rally.

On the economic front, data showed U.S. job openings rose to a two-year high in February, led by gains in some of the industries hardest hit during the pandemic. The International Monetary Fund upgraded its global growth forecast for the second time in three months while warning about a divergence between advanced and lesser-developed nations. so far.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

The dollar dropped with Treasury yields as traders pared back on expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes seen after a solid U.S. jobs report last week. The euro touched a two-week high, while the franc and yen were among top performers in the Group-of-10 category as traders continued to unwind short positions held on the currencies in the first quarter.

EURUSD +0.4% to 1.1865; touched highest since March 23. The euro volatility skew shifts to depict less bearish sentiment for the currency.

USDJPY -0.3% at 109.85 amid fund and stop-loss sales; gamma from 110 strikes may slowly drop.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4 Hour Chart)

EURUSD extended its nearly bullish momentum to an intraday high, trading at 1.1877 level. Euro got a significant correction from the downside then toward to previously shoulder level of “M shape” pattern at 1.1877. On the RSI side, the indicator has breached into an over-bought area that closes at 74 figures as of writing, suggesting a high possibility of a cool-down movement against nearly market sentiment. On the other hand, 15-long SMAs has golden cross 60-SMAs base on 4-hour interval. Therefore, we expect the eurodollar is still north ways space in the recent short term. However, we believe the 1.1877 level is the first vital resistance for whether will it extend pickup movement. If breakthrough the first resistance, next price level could eye on 1.1990. On the south way, 1.1790 is deemed the first defended level, 1.1705 following.

Resistance: 1.1877, 1.199

Support: 1.1792, 1.1705

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

Japan yen has successive second negative way as it tamps down from head pattern like highlight rectangle, trading at 109.73 while market close. Currently, weakness market move is driving 15-long SMAs to descend trend whilst 60-long SMAs remain strongly upward trend. For the RSI perspective, the indicator closes at 33 figures as of writing, suggesting a bearish movement for the short term. In the light of the bleak suggestion from two indicators, we expect the yen would continue toward to south territory. Therefore, first upon resistance set on 110 around, 110.35 and 110.85 behind, respectively.

Resistance: 110, 110.35, 110.85

Support: 109.45, 109.25, 108.37

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold has formally stood over the consolidation and toward to right shoulder of the “W shape” pattern which is trading at 1743 as of writing. From the RSI perspective, the indicator held 69 figures, suggesting a bullish ahead. On the other hand, 15-long SMAs have a golden cross over 60-long SMAs that both of them are turning to ascend trend. Therefore, we expect gold to still have a pickup space pursuant RSI indicator which not approach the overbought area yet. Meanwhile, the strong momentum of the price average indicator shows a vigorously signal. However, we foresee there has a one-month-long resistance on 1754.53. Once break the powerful resistance, we believe the market will toward to higher stage.

Resistance: 1754.53

Support: 1737.7, 1722.76, 1678.85

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